The invitations to the big bash are out. The COC will announce the 2016/17 season on the 13th of January. So it’s time to crack the shoulder blades, eviscerate the chickens and check that spread sheet I’ve been running for the last few years. After all what’s the holiday season without a little humiliation?
So, broadly speaking, the prediction model is built up of four elements:
- Stuff Alexander Neef has already said
- Stuff other people have been less than discreet about
- Co-pros in the works
- Incredibly deep analysis of historical patterns
So starting with the easy stuff, Götterdämmerung is a no brainer. Even an engineer could spot this pattern. The only question on this one is which restaurants Christine Goerke will choose to patronize.
Harry Somers’ Louis Riel is another safe bet. We know it’s coming in calendar 2017; 50th anniversary of the original, 150th anniversary of Confederation etc. I suppose it’s possible that it could run in Fall 2017 but I don’t think so.
Of the co-pros Norma is the top pick. Sondra’s response to being asked if she was going to be singing the role in Toronto was “I can’t say until January”!
Ariodante was listed last year on the Aix web site as coming to Toronto in 2016. Alexander may yet pull a surprise here but there’s always something pre 1800 and this is the obvious candidate. Sarah Connolly? A boy can dream.
The other co-pros in the works that I know about are the Santa Fe Arabella, the Girard Parsifal, the Kentridge Lulu and the Bieito La Forza del Destino. I think the only one of these likely to see the light in 16/17 is the Arabella. There have been rumours about contracts but Arabella and Wagner in one season? I’m going to call this a “yes” but I’m far from confident.
So that leaves the deep pattern based stuff. If my five so far are right then only one is a revival. Five new productions in one season is unlikely so the sixth show is likely to be a revival. Also two seasons running without Puccini is almost without precedent. The last four years have seen Butterfly and La Bohème so this would suggest a revival of the Paul Curran Tosca. It’s a safe “bums on seats” production which the season needs and which only the Norma potentially offers.
There you go then; my six picks. Last year, with some help from Dylan Hayden, the Opera Predictor batted 5/6. Can we better that?